Warmer Then Colder

Michael HookArkansas WeatherLeave a Comment

Rain ended on Monday but the clouds hung around during the day and overnight with patchy fog developing. Some of the fog was dense across northern Arkansas overnight and this morning with a Dense Fog Advisory being issued for parts of the north. Temperatures at 7:00 AM were in the 30s and 40s across the state with a few locations in NW Arkansas just below freezing and combined with the fog some slippery spots were being reported.

Skies will be mostly cloudy today especially in the east and central with some breaks in the clouds possible. High temperatures will be cool with the 40s and 50s across the state. Clouds and patchy fog will be seen tonight with lows in the 30s and 40s.

Warmer air will begin to move into the state on Wednesday ahead of the next storm system to affect the state. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy but high temperatures will be in the 50s and low 60s. Rain chances will show up late in the day in parts of the west with chances increasing on Thursday. High temperatures Thursday will be similar to Wednesday but maybe a few degrees warmer with lower and possibly middle 60s possible in the Little Rock area.

As the main storm system swings through Thursday and Thursday night, colder air will move in behind the system and may change the rain to a light wintry mix especially over northern and NE Arkansas but this could extend into parts of central Arkansas including the Little Rock area. An upper-level system will also be moving through on Friday which could also help with the winter precipitation.  Amounts at this time look light with the EURO the most aggressive with snowfall accumulation and especially over NE Arkansas where that model was showing a couple of inches of snowfall. The GFS and NAM showed some light accumulations in northern Arkansas but limited amounts in central sections.  Temperatures will fall well into the 20s by Friday morning so anything that does fall, could create some winter travel issues.  High temperatures on Friday are forecast to be in the 30s and 40s but temps could fall during the afternoon.

Some early model data is shown below but know this isn’t an accumulation forecast as we are too far out for reliable snowfall maps and there are still many questions to answer regarding this potential winter weather event.

0Z EURO snowfall map (this is preliminary and will change as better data comes in)

NAM snowfall map showing small amounts in northern AR

GFS snowfall map showing accumulations in northern and western sections

Sunshine is forecast to return for the weekend but it’ll be cold with highs in the 30s and lows in the teens and 20s.

Another system will approach the state early next week with a chance of precipitation but there are model differences in the type that we may see. It could start out as a wintry mix before transitioning to rain.


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